The EUA market turned negative during January and February as priorities on the political agenda shifted towards security and geopolitical issues. Furthermore, a fall in gas prices accelerated the move and speculators reduced some of their long positions due to geopolitical tensions.
The start of CBAM has led to several discussions concerning the lack of certified CBAM verifiers in the countries exposed to its requirements. The EU is yet to set up to the framework and certification regulations, undermining the idea of a leveraged market as some countries will find themselves exposed to much higher default benchmarks than the values emitted. For cement companies outside the EU, this could become a trade obstacle as they risk adding multiple times the “correct” CBAM fee on the export, unless importers trust that verification will be carried out in time before CBAM certificates must be bought.
The Dec 2026 contract saw a sharp fall of 21 per cent to EUR71. It is most likely that EUR70 will act as a major support. The long-term EUA price for 2030 has fallen by EUR17 to EUR83. The market is not expected to reach the EUR100 mark until the 2033 contract. Meanwhile, the UK Allowance (UKA) December 2026 contract has fallen 30 per cent to GBP46.00 (EUR53).
Brannvoll ApS forecasts a range of EUR75-100 in 2026 with an average of EUR90 for the Dec 26 contract.
